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The Challenge of Holding the Quad Together

Nov. 14, 2026

Context:

  • The US Secretary of State announced that leaders of the four Quad countries — India, Australia, Japan, and the US — are expected to meet in Manila in November 2026, on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit.
  • This marks the first Quad Leaders’ Summit since Donald Trump’s second term began, and the first attended by Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi.
    • The last such summit was held in Wilmington (2024), under Biden and Kishida.
  • This announcement comes after a turbulent 2025 for the grouping, raising key questions about the Quad’s future cohesion and Trump’s Indo-Pacific vision.
  • This article highlights the challenges facing the Quad grouping amid shifting US geopolitical priorities and growing uncertainty over Washington’s Indo-Pacific engagement.
  • It examines the grouping’s efforts to sustain cooperation despite strategic turbulence, the significance of the proposed Manila summit, and how India, Japan and Australia are diversifying their security partnerships.

A Period of Strategic Turbulence

  • Though India was expected to host the next summit, 2025 saw the Quad undergo intense strategic turbulence due to shifting US geopolitical priorities and changing bilateral dynamics, especially with India.
  • Despite this, the grouping did not collapse — operational cooperation continued.
  • Key Achievement: The Quad’s Indo-Pacific Maritime Domain Awareness initiative was elevated to the Indo-Pacific Maritime Surveillance Collaboration framework, launched in New Delhi (May 2026) following a Quad Foreign Ministers’ Meeting.

Keeping the Quad Afloat: Ministerial Engagement

  • Foreign Ministers met multiple times despite the political low point:
    • 2025: Twice in Washington (first meeting marked Marco Rubio’s debut as Secretary of State).
    • 2026: Three times — in New Delhi, Manila, and Atlanta.
  • Since the Quad lacks a permanent bureaucracy or institutional framework, leader-level summits serve as vital platforms to reaffirm shared purpose and set the agenda.

The Core Question: Trump’s Indo-Pacific Engagement

  • This summit will be the first real indication of Trump’s Indo-Pacific vision for his second term.
  • Historical Context: The Quad was revived during Trump’s first term (2017), which also saw the US Pacific Command renamed US Indo-Pacific Command.
  • Current Concerns: Trump’s priorities have been dominated by the Russia-Ukraine war, transatlantic/NATO relations, and the West Asia conflict — causing regional partners to worry about a potential shift away from the Indo-Pacific.
  • Trump’s push for greater burden-sharing among partners, and the White House’s review of AUKUS, have heightened uncertainty among Indo-Pacific players.

Regional Responses: Diversification Strategies

  • Facing this uncertainty, Quad partners have pursued diversification of their security approaches:
    • Japan: Launched the OCEAN (One Cooperative Effort Among Nations) framework, reshaping its post-war security posture through deeper strategic alignment with partners.
    • Australia: Strengthened defence partnerships with India, Japan, Southeast Asian nations, and Pacific Island countries to counter China’s expanding footprint.
    • India: Continues its policy of multi-alignment, diversifying defence and strategic ties across the Indian Ocean and wider Indo-Pacific.
    • JAI grouping (Japan-Australia-India): Defence Ministers met recently in Cebu, signalling deeper trilateral cooperation independent of Washington’s role.
    • France: Emerging as a new Indo-Pacific player, strengthening ties with regional countries for a balanced security environment.
  • Despite this diversification, Washington’s role remains critical — particularly in safeguarding the Taiwan Strait, a key flashpoint amid China’s growing maritime assertiveness.

Why Manila Matters: A Strategic Message?

  • Though India was expected to host the summit, the Philippines hosting it reinforces a foundational Quad pillar: ASEAN centrality.
  • The Philippines is at the frontline of Chinese assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific, with ongoing South China Sea sovereignty disputes with Beijing.
  • Following precedent, Quad leaders are expected to reiterate the importance of respecting sovereignty in the South and East China Seas and condemn violations of international law.
  • For Trump, this visit carries two key priorities: resetting American posture in the region and reaffirming the Quad’s commitment against Chinese belligerence — delivered symbolically from Manila itself.

Conclusion

The Manila summit represents a crucial test of the Quad’s resilience amid Trump-era uncertainty. While regional partners diversify their strategic options, sustained American engagement remains indispensable for countering China’s assertiveness and preserving a stable, rules-based Indo-Pacific order.