Context:

• Recent geopolitical conflicts and the prospect of a strong El Niño are exposing two emerging vulnerabilities in Indian agriculture.
• The first is “fossilisation” of farming, where agriculture increasingly depends on fossil fuels and petrochemical inputs, and the second is “fuelisation” of food, where crops are diverted towards biofuel production.

From Bullocks to Fossil-Fuel Intensive Farming:

• At the beginning of the Green Revolution, Indian agriculture relied heavily on animal power and organic manure.
• In 1950-51, India had only about 8,500 tractors, while fertiliser consumption was merely 69,800 tonnes of N, P and K.
• Bullocks powered ploughing, threshing, transportation and traditional irrigation systems such as the rahat or Persian wheel. Cattle manure was the principal source of plant nutrients.
• The situation has changed dramatically. India now has over 1.2 crore tractors, with 11.6 lakh tractors sold in 2025-26 alone.
• Combines have replaced much manual harvesting and threshing, while electric and diesel pumps have replaced traditional water-lifting systems.
• Chemical fertiliser consumption has also surged to 33.5 million tonnes of N, P and K in 2025-26, with around 67.5% coming from urea and DAP.

Fossilisation Goes Beyond Tractors and Fertilisers:

• Agricultural dependence on hydrocarbons extends to crop-protection chemicals.
• Petrochemical feedstocks such as benzene, toluene, xylene, ethylene and propylene are used to manufacture active ingredients of insecticides, herbicides and fungicides.
• Their formulations also rely heavily on petroleum-based solvents and surfactants.
• This dependence makes agriculture vulnerable to geopolitical disruptions in energy markets.
• Conflicts in West Asia and the Black Sea region have sharply increased the prices of LNG, a key feedstock for nitrogen fertilisers, and naphtha, an important petrochemical input.
• Sulphur is another critical vulnerability. It is essential for producing phosphatic fertilisers (DAP and SSP) and is largely obtained as a by-product of oil refining and natural-gas processing.
• Its price has risen sharply amid disruptions to Russian and West Asian energy infrastructure.
• Thus, wars affecting oil, gas and refineries can indirectly raise the cost and availability of agricultural inputs.

Fuelisation of Food - Agriculture as an Energy Source:

• The second trend is “fuelisation of food”—using agricultural commodities as feedstock for biofuels.
• India produces ethanol from sugarcane, rice, maize and other starch-rich crops, with ethanol blending in petrol targeted at 20%.
• Vegetable oils can similarly be converted into FAME (fatty acid methyl esters) for blending with diesel.
• This creates a potential food-versus-fuel trade-off. If crude oil prices remain high, the economic incentive to divert food crops and edible oils towards biofuel production increases.
• Indonesia’s mandatory blending of palm-oil-derived FAME illustrates the scale of this trend.

The War-El Niño Double Shock:

• A very strong El Niño, if it materialises, could create an additional supply shock through heat, rainfall disruption and reduced agricultural productivity.
• If this coincides with high energy and input prices, Indian agriculture could face a twin shock of geopolitical instability and climate variability.
• A historical parallel is 1979-80, when Indian agriculture contracted by 12.8%, while the oil import bill doubled following the Iranian Revolution.
• However, India is better placed today. Agriculture has become more diversified, with rising contributions from dairying, poultry, aquaculture and horticulture.
• Irrigation coverage has also expanded substantially—from 17.1% of gross cropped area in 1950-51 and 29% in 1979-80 to about 56% today.

Way Forward - Reduce Input Vulnerability and Inefficient Agriculture:

• Improve fertiliser-use efficiency:
  • Excessive dependence on urea and DAP needs to be reduced because their nutrient-use efficiency is low.
  • Only about one-third of nitrogen applied through urea is absorbed by crops, while much phosphorus from DAP becomes unavailable through soil fixation.
• Promote balanced fertilisation: Greater use of ammonium sulphate and complex fertilisers with balanced nutrients can reduce nitrogen losses and phosphorus lock-up.
• Expand biostimulants: These can improve root development, nutrient uptake and plant metabolic efficiency.
• Reduce chemical pesticide dependence: Plant-based or biological approaches that activate crops’ natural defence and adaptation mechanisms can reduce reliance on petrochemical pesticides.
• Promote renewable irrigation: Solar-powered pumps combined with drip irrigation can reduce diesel/electricity dependence while improving water-use efficiency.
• Balance food and fuel security: Biofuel policies must remain sensitive to food availability, especially during climate-induced production shocks.

Conclusion:

• The policy objective should be to build an agriculture system that is less fossil-fuel intensive, more nutrient- and water-efficient, climate-resilient and careful about the food-versus-fuel trade-off.
• The emerging combination of war and climate shocks makes this transition increasingly