Why in news?

The Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol turned 10 years old on October 15, 2026. It committed nations to phase down hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) — potent greenhouse gases used widely in refrigeration and air-conditioning.

While the amendment could prevent up to 0.5°C of warming by 2100, India now faces this challenge at an unusual scale: its cooling demand is projected to more than double by 2035. What happens next in India’s cooling choices may matter as much as what Kigali has already achieved.

What’s in Today’s Article?

• What Is the Kigali Amendment, and Why Was It Needed?
• Why Cooling Is Central to Kigali’s Next Decade?
• What Must India Do Under Kigali?
• What Remains Unfinished After 10 Years?
• Who Pays for the Transition?
• Why Has the Montreal Protocol Succeeded? Lessons for the Future?
• Could This Model Work for Other Pollutants?

What Is the Kigali Amendment, and Why Was It Needed?

• The Montreal Protocol (1987) originally phased out chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and other ozone-depleting substances. Countries have since eliminated nearly 99% of controlled substances, and the ozone layer is recovering.
• HFCs became the common replacement refrigerant since they don’t deplete ozone — but they carry a massive climate cost: many have hundreds to thousands of times the warming impact of CO2 (weight for weight) over a century, if they escape into the atmosphere.
• Federated States of Micronesia and Mauritius proposed bringing HFCs under the Protocol in 2009.
• The amendment was adopted in Kigali, Rwanda, on October 15, 2016, entering into force in January 2019. It sets binding schedules to reduce HFC production/consumption — a “phase-down,” not a complete ban, since limited use continues.
• How Much Warming Could It Prevent?
  • Full implementation could avoid 0.3°C to 0.5°C of global warming by 2100, as per UN-backed scientific assessment.
  • This matters significantly given the Paris Agreement’s goal of keeping warming well below 2°C, pursuing a 1.5°C limit.

Why Cooling Is Central to Kigali’s Next Decade?

• Cooling drives warming through two channels:
  • Refrigerant leakage directly into the atmosphere.
  • Electricity consumption to run cooling equipment — causing emissions wherever fossil fuels power the grid.
• Switching refrigerants addresses the first problem; improving appliance efficiency addresses the second.
• The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) and International Energy Agency (IEA) estimate combining the HFC transition with efficiency improvements could roughly double the climate benefit.
• India’s Specific Stakes
  • Cooling already accounts for over 10% of India’s annual electricity demand (as per IEA).
  • On hot summer nights, air-conditioners can account for up to a third of power consumption.
  • Under current policies, India’s cooling demand is projected to more than double by 2035.

What Must India Do Under Kigali?

• India ratified the amendment in 2021, with a clear compliance timeline:
  • 2028: Freeze HFC production and consumption at an agreed baseline.
  • 2032: First cut — 10% below baseline.
  • 2047: Reductions reach 85%.
• Equipment purchased before the first cuts may remain in use well into the 2030s — making its efficiency crucial for household electricity bills and the country’s generating-capacity needs.
• This gives India strong incentive to improve appliance standards early, rather than waiting for treaty deadlines.
• Weak standards also create an import risk — inefficient appliances rejected by stricter markets may be dumped into India, saddling buyers with years of high electricity bills.

What Remains Unfinished After 10 Years?

• Universal participation is still incomplete: 175 parties had joined by early October 2026.
• Existing refrigerants inside equipment also need management — they can leak during servicing or escape when appliances are scrapped. Recovery and safe destruction of refrigerants is essential, since production restrictions alone can’t address this.
• The “Friends of the Kigali Amendment” coalition was revived in New York recently, backed by the Climate and Clean Air Coalition, to push for wider participation, more financing, and better refrigerant recovery.

Who Pays for the Transition?

• The Protocol’s Multilateral Fund (established 1990, operational since 1991) helps developing countries meet additional compliance costs — funded by developed countries.
• The Fund’s work helped avoid emissions equivalent to ~50 billion tonnes of CO2 between 1995–2021, at a cost of just ~7 US cents per tonne.
• The same financing mechanism supports the HFC phase-down — crucial for Indian manufacturers navigating the transition.

Why Has the Montreal Protocol Succeeded? Lessons for the Future

• Analysts described the Protocol’s approach as “start and strengthen” — beginning with a modest target (50% CFC reduction) and progressively tightening controls as alternatives became available.
• Key success factors:
  • Binding schedules gave manufacturers certainty to invest in substitutes.
  • Expert panels assessed available technology to guide decisions.
  • Developing countries received longer timetables, backed by the Fund.

Could This Model Work for Other Pollutants?

• The four main Short-Lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs) — methane, black carbon, HFCs, and tropospheric (ground-level) ozone — have strong warming effects but shorter atmospheric lifetimes than CO2, making their reduction a fast lever against near-term warming.
• Methane (lifespan ~12 years) from oil and gas operations is a prime candidate for a Montreal-style binding agreement — leak repairs can prevent emissions while preserving saleable gas.
• The EU’s 27 member states already have an international methane agreement requiring leak detection/repair and restricting routine gas flaring — a possible template for wider adoption.
• For India specifically, methane from cattle requires balancing emission cuts with small farmers’ incomes and food security, while black carbon (soot) requires tackling diesel engines and household cooking fuels — underscoring the need for sector-specific agreements.