Context:

• The Israel-Iran conflict has created a far bigger global disruption for India than Trump’s tariff wars.
• India has long depended on stable ties with Iran for energy security, regional influence, and maintaining an independent foreign policy.
• While India successfully navigated the Ukraine war, the current West Asia crisis presents an even more serious long-term strategic challenge.
• Recent economic and defence partnerships with Europe, once seen as strengthening India’s global position, now appear insufficient in giving India leverage in this rapidly escalating regional conflict.

India’s Strategic Autonomy Under Pressure in a Changing Global Order

• Europe Deals Offer Limited Strategic Cushion
  • India’s recent major agreements—such as the Rafale fighter jet deal with France and progress on the India-EU Free Trade Agreement—were seen as milestones toward a more multipolar world order.
  • However, the emerging West Asia crisis shows that these partnerships offer limited protection against American unilateral actions.
• U.S. Unilateralism is Reshaping Global Politics
  • The U.S. attack on Iran and its disregard for wider consequences on global trade and security demonstrate that American dominance remains strong.
  • Hopes of a balanced multipolar order appear premature.
• Economic Autonomy Becoming Harder
  • Previously, India enjoyed considerable freedom in economic policymaking because the U.S.-led economic system was relatively open and market-driven.
  • Trump’s tariff policies and increasing economic coercion now signal a shift where countries are expected to align their economic choices with American strategic interests.
• Strategic Autonomy Was India’s Key Foreign Policy Strength
  • India has successfully maintained relations with competing powers—including the U.S., Russia, China, Iran, Israel, and European nations—without fully aligning with any bloc.
  • This balancing act has been the strongest expression of India’s strategic autonomy.
• Trump-Era Pressures Challenge India’s Independent Choices
  • U.S. demands that India reduce Russian oil imports, weaken ties with Iran, avoid de-dollarisation initiatives like BRICS alternatives, and align more closely with American interests represent one of the biggest challenges to India’s foreign policy independence in decades.
• India’s Regional Image Faces Strain
  • Even temporary U.S. concessions, such as the waiver for Russian oil purchases, came on Washington’s terms, highlighting India’s limited room for manoeuvre.
  • The sinking of an Iranian naval ship by a U.S. submarine in the Indian Ocean, shortly after its participation in an Indian naval event, further dented India’s image as a major regional power.
  • India’s long-standing strategy of balancing multiple global relationships without choosing sides is becoming increasingly difficult as the U.S. combines military dominance with economic coercion, narrowing the space for genuine strategic autonomy.

Europe Deals Reduce Dependence, But Not Strategic Risks

• India’s Diversification Strategy - India’s FTA with the EU and Rafale fighter jet deal with France are seen as efforts to reduce dependence on the U.S. by diversifying strategic partnerships.
• Rafale Deal: Strategic Gains with Limitations - The Rafale deal benefits both India and France—India gains access to advanced fighter aircraft while France secures a major long-term defence market. Compared to U.S. or Russian options, Rafale appears the most practical choice.
• Technology Transfer Concerns - Despite expectations, doubts remain over the extent of technology transfer. French control over source codes and critical algorithms means India may remain dependent on France for future upgrades, limiting defence self-reliance and weakening the ‘Make in India’ objective.
• EU FTA as a Response to Global Economic Uncertainty - The India-EU FTA can be viewed as an attempt to protect against Trump’s protectionist economic policies and preserve a rules-based liberal economic order through stronger alternative trade partnerships.
• Domestic Political Challenges - The FTA may face resistance within India, particularly from farmers and industrial workers who could fear increased competition and economic disruption, making political acceptance difficult.
• New Dependencies May Replace Old Ones - While these agreements reduce dependence on the U.S., they do not remove risks entirely. Europe may also use trade and strategic partnerships to gain leverage over India, creating a different form of dependency.

Europe’s Strategic Limits and America’s Continuing Dominance

• India strongly supports a genuinely multipolar global order that allows strategic flexibility.
• In contrast, most European countries—except occasionally France—have historically aligned with the U.S., limiting their independence in major geopolitical crises.
• Europe’s recent engagement with India appears driven more by temporary tensions with Trump’s America than by a long-term strategic shift. Historical patterns suggest Europe tends to return to the American fold under pressure.
• Statements from U.S. leadership indicate a push toward a renewed Western economic and strategic bloc built around shared civilisational identity and supply chain control.
• This suggests that countries of the Global South may be treated less as equal partners and more as arenas of geopolitical competition.
• Cultural and Strategic Divergence Limits India-Europe Alignment
  • In an era of rising identity politics and geopolitical tribalism, the idea of a deep strategic alignment between India and Europe appears weak, especially when core Western interests are at stake.
  • Despite rhetorical reservations over the West Asia conflict, European countries are likely to ultimately support or facilitate American and Israeli strategic objectives, highlighting their limited autonomy from Washington.

Conclusion

• India’s strategic autonomy faces unprecedented pressure as global power politics harden, making diversified partnerships useful but insufficient for preserving genuine independent decision-making.