Context:

• Sharp oil price increases have historically triggered macroeconomic instability in India, recalling the 1973 oil shock and the 1991 balance-of-payments crisis.
• When tensions escalated in West Asia and the Strait of Hormuz became the epicentre of global anxiety, many feared a repeat of history.
• India imports nearly 90% of its crude oil and depends heavily on the Gulf for oil, gas, and fertilizers, making it seemingly vulnerable.
• Yet India defied expectations and emerged stronger, raising the question: was this resilience luck, or the result of deliberate policy?

Defying the Odds

• India, the world's third-largest oil importer, faced serious exposure when the crisis hit.
• The Indian crude basket crossed $120 per barrel, LPG cylinder costs rose above ₹1,600, and war-risk premiums spiked sharply.
• Despite this, India contained inflation better than most peers:
  • Petrol prices rose just 7.5% in India, compared to 14% in Germany, 19% in the UK, 45% in the US, over 50% in Pakistan and the Philippines, and nearly 90% in Myanmar.
  • Diesel prices rose only 8% in India, versus about 85% in the UAE.
  • LPG cylinders stayed at ₹942 (₹642 for Ujjwala beneficiaries), cheaper than in Pakistan, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, and far below prices in the US, Australia, and Canada.
• This stability came at a fiscal cost: state-run Oil Marketing Companies absorbed ₹74,781 crore in losses on petrol, diesel, and LPG sales up to June 30, shielding households from the full price shock.

Weathering the Storm: Four Key Factors

• Strategic relationships as energy security: Sustained engagement with Iran and Gulf partners kept communication channels open. Iran facilitated movement of Indian ships, and Gulf producers continued supplying energy.
• Diversified supplier base: Energy partnerships with Russia, the US, Africa, and Latin America gave India flexibility that earlier crises lacked.
• A decade of energy planning: Higher ethanol blending, expanding renewable energy capacity, larger strategic reserves, and stronger refining capacity built layered resilience over time.
• Whole-of-government coordination: The Ministries of External Affairs, Petroleum and Natural Gas, Ports, Shipping and Waterways, the Indian Navy, and the National Security Council Secretariat worked together to monitor risks and protect supplies.

The Way Ahead

• The crisis demonstrated that resilience is built through years of preparation, not panic responses.
• Strategic foresight, diplomatic outreach, and institutional coordination together turned a potential shock into a managed outcome, one that could underpin India's 'Viksit Bharat' ambitions amid growing global uncertainty.

Conclusion

• India's calm handling of the West Asia crisis was no accident.
• It was the fruit of patient diplomacy, diversified energy sourcing, and coordinated governance, proof that true security lies in preparation, not improvisation, and a template for navigating future global shocks.