Context

• Operation Sindoor (May 7–10) has brought to the fore a troubling evolution in regional geopolitics, one marked by unprecedented battlefield collusion between China and Pakistan.
• Confirmed publicly by the Deputy Chief of Army Staff, Lieutenant-General Rahul R. Singh, the conflict has underscored the transformation of the China-Pakistan strategic nexus from traditional partnership to real-time operational cooperation.
• Now it is imperative to explore the scope, nature, and consequences of this collaboration, analysing its implications for India’s military posture, diplomatic strategy, and long-term security environment.

The Nature of China-Pakistan Collusion

• A Strategic Shift: From Tacit Support to Tactical Partnership
  • Historically, China’s role in India-Pakistan military conflicts, in 1965, 1971, and 1999, remained limited to diplomatic backing and symbolic gestures in support of Pakistan.
  • However, Operation Sindoor revealed a more active and layered involvement.
  • Rather than merely supporting Pakistan in principle, China provided tangible operational support, leveraging its defence-industrial base, real-time ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) capabilities, and tactical interoperability.
  • This marks a major departure from earlier strategies and represents a sophisticated form of grey-zone warfare, enabling Pakistan without triggering direct confrontation with India.
  • China’s diplomatic posture, especially after the April 22 Pahalgam terrorist attack, was openly aligned with Pakistan.
• Digital and Informational Collusion: Crafting the Narrative
  • Chinese state media and affiliated digital influencers amplified Pakistani propaganda, including exaggerated claims of Indian military losses.
  • Social media operations were synchronized with Pakistan’s Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) psychological warfare, seeking to shape global perceptions and frame India’s military actions as disproportionate responses.
  • The goal was clear: to delegitimise India’s punitive actions, obscure the terrorist origins of the conflict, and portray India as the aggressor.

Strategic and Operational Implications for India

• Deterrence Dynamic and New Strategic Normal
  • The deterrence dynamic between India and its adversaries has shifted.
  • China’s ability to support Pakistan without overt military involvement complicates India’s strategic calculus.
  • It allows Beijing to test India’s red lines while maintaining deniability and avoiding direct confrontation.
  • India is now operating in a new strategic normal, one in which conventional retaliation against Pakistan is feasible even under the shadow of nuclear deterrence.
  • But just as India finds this new latitude, Pakistan and China are forging their own normal of joint battlefield operations.
• Boost to China’s Arms Industry and Two Live Borders for India
  • Pakistan’s post-conflict announcements, such as the acquisition of China’s J-35 stealth fighters, KJ-500 AEW&C aircraft, and HQ-19 missile defence systems, cement this trajectory.
  • The real-time combat deployment of Chinese platforms effectively served as a live-fire demonstration for China’s arms industry.
  • It validated Chinese systems in a real battlefield against western-origin platforms and has given Beijing added leverage in global arms markets, while incentivising future use of grey-zone tactics.
  • India now faces the reality of two live borders. Despite partial disengagement in Eastern Ladakh, Chinese forces remain deployed in strength.
  • Simultaneously, the 2021 ceasefire along the Line of Control has broken down, requiring simultaneous deployment of troops, ISR capabilities, and logistical assets on both the western and northern fronts.

Strategic Recommendations and Way Forward

• Recalibrate Diplomacy with China: Strategic collusion with Pakistan must carry costs for Beijing. Just as India has ruled out terror and talks with Pakistan, China’s military enabling of Pakistan must impact bilateral engagements.
• Expand Conventional Capabilities
  • India’s defence spending, which declined from 17.1% to 13% of central government expenditure over a decade, must be urgently reviewed.
  • Investments must be directed toward ISR systems, drones, cyber operations, and network-centric warfare
• Avoid Predictability in Military Response
  • India must diversify its punitive options, avoiding formulaic kinetic retaliation.
  • Levers such as economic sanctions, covert operations, and treaty-based tools (like reconsidering the Indus Waters Treaty) should be explored without public signalling.
• Institutional and Strategic Integration: The blurring of threat domains necessitates inter-agency coordination, military modernization, and doctrinal shifts. Operation Sindoor should be studied not just tactically but as a model for future warfare.

Conclusion

• The events of Operation Sindoor and the attendant China-Pakistan collusion mark a strategic inflection point for India.
• No longer can collusion be viewed as a hypothetical worst-case scenario; it is now a lived reality.
• As India faces this increasingly complex and contested battlespace, it must respond with a blend of hard power, diplomatic clarity, and strategic imagination.
• The choices made now will determine whether India can preserve strategic stability in the region or remain reactive to the initiatives of a deeply integrated adversarial axis.