Context

• The turn of 2026 underscores the erosion of the post–Second World War international order.
• Structures once rooted in multilateral norms and collective security are giving way to a fragmented environment driven by unilateral coercion, regional power assertions, and opportunistic diplomacy.
• The year reveals a world transitioning from rules-based order to competitive multipolarity, where norms often yield to force and influence.

The New ‘Donroe Doctrine’ and the Return of Hemispheric Hegemony

• The year begins with a dramatic U.S. operation: the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, justified as a security imperative and framed as an updated incarnation of the nineteenth-century Monroe Doctrine.
• This new ‘Donroe Doctrine’ reflects President Donald Trump’s instinct to restore hemispheric primacy and assert the United States as the dominant guarantor of security in the Western Hemisphere.
• Trump’s November 2025 National Security Strategy (NSS) articulates ambitions to deny non-Hemispheric competitors’ strategic access to the region.
• The Venezuelan action fits a broader pattern of hemispheric reassertion, combined with veiled signals toward Cuba, Colombia, Mexico, and even Greenland.
• The muted international response reinforces the perception that sovereignty norms have weakened and that the post-1945 security architecture is no longer constraining major powers.
• This environment invites emulation: China and Russia now appear more confident about advancing their own spheres of influence, with Taiwan representing China’s most salient potential flashpoint.
• Global politics edges toward a world of regional doctrines rather than global consensus.

The Trouble in Asia: A Region of Uneven Fires

• The Trouble in West Asia
  • West Asia enters 2026 in a fractured state. Israel’s military offensives in Gaza have paused, yet durable peace remains elusive.
  • Violence persists as a background condition, especially in densely populated and contested zones.
  • Instability deepens with unrest in Iran, where the regime identifies itself as fighting four simultaneous wars: economic, psychological, military, and counterterrorism.
  • The U.S. and Israel perceive an opportunity to undermine the Khamenei regime, reviving unfinished objectives from 2025.
  • Additional sanctions and covert manoeuvres heighten regional tension, making escalation more likely than reconciliation.
• Afghanistan and Bangladesh
  • The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and allied militant groups gain renewed momentum, threatening the fragile Afghanistan–Pakistan frontier.
  • Pakistan experiences intensified military dominance under Field Marshal Asim Munir, with democratic processes further eroded.
  • Yet Islamabad paradoxically enjoys revived status as a preferred U.S. partner and recipient of advanced weapons systems, reshaping regional balances.
  • Bangladesh confronts democratic uncertainty as elections promise procedural renewal without guaranteeing stability.
  • Together, these trends render West and Northwest Asia a mosaic of local crises without regional mechanisms for conflict resolution.

China’s Strategic Poise and the Pacific Reshuffle

• Amid this volatility, China finishes 2025 with strengthened geopolitical posture.
• The tariff confrontation with the U.S. fails to cripple Chinese industry; instead, Beijing consolidates its position in global supply chains and uses rare earth export restrictions as strategic leverage.
• These actions underscore China’s capacity for economic statecraft.
• China’s influence expands across Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean, eroding traditional U.S. dominance in the Eastern Pacific.
• Power shifts occur quietly through investments, infrastructure, and maritime logistics rather than direct confrontation.
• The U.S. finds itself stretched between reasserting hemispheric control and countering Chinese expansion across the Indo-Pacific.

India at the Crossroads: Strategic Uncertainty and Diplomatic Constraints

• India enters 2026 in an ambiguous strategic position. Despite alignment with U.S. interests on several fronts, Trump criticizes India’s continued imports of Russian oil and cultivates closer ties with Pakistan, producing a subtle diplomatic chill.
• This reduces India’s leverage in West Asian crises and narrows its mediation space.
• Mini-lateral initiatives such as I2U2 and the India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor progress, yet economic vulnerabilities remain.
• China holds a tactical advantage in tariff and trade disputes, limiting India’s ability to hedge.
• The improvement in India-China relations after the 2025 Tianjin meeting stabilizes tensions but does not generate momentum for deeper rapprochement.
• Terrorism persists as an ambient threat in 2026. While India may avoid major attacks, Islamic State and al-Qaeda activity in Africa and West Asia ensures that militant networks remain dispersed, resilient, and transnational. 

Conclusion

• The emerging world of 2026 is defined not by institution-building but by geopolitical disorder.
• The Donroe Doctrine symbolises a shift from multilateral restraint to unilateral assertion, encouraging similar ambitions among rival powers.
• Middle states such as India must adapt to an environment where power increasingly substitutes for legitimacy and where regionalism replaces global security consensus.