Status of Relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel Amid War

Oct. 15, 2023

Why in News?

According to the sources, Saudi Arabia is putting US-backed plans to normalise ties with Israel on ice, signalling a rapid rethink of its foreign policy priorities as war escalates between Israel and Palestinian group Hamas.

What’s in Today’s Article?

What is the Potential Deal Between Israel and Saudi?

The US has been working for months to broker a deal that would improve relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.
The highlight of the deal is that Saudi Arabia will recognise Israel for the first time since the latter’s establishment in 1948.
- The kingdom has so far shied away from formalising ties with the Jewish state primarily because of the Israel-Palestine conflict.
- The Saudis have been demanding (since the beginning) Palestinian statehood.
More than resolving the Palestinian question, Riyadh now wants security guarantees from the US in exchange for recognising Israel.
- Specifically, the kingdom seeks protection from Iran, which has been its arch rival for decades now.
Saudi Arabia wants an agreement with the US that would be as close as possible to a mutual defence pact - in which any attack on the kingdom would be seen by Washington as an attack on the US.
The deal also includes US support for a Saudi civilian nuclear programme and US approval for the sale of sophisticated weapons to the kingdom.
Israel, which is technologically advanced in a wide range of fields, will also help Riyadh move its economy beyond oil.

How will the Formalisation of Ties with the Saudis help Israel?

Saudi Arabia is the richest and most powerful of the Arab countries. A formal relationship will bring economic benefits to Israel.
It would give legitimacy to the State of Israel in the mostly-Muslim region and help the country become a significant player in West Asia.
The deal will bestow political gains upon Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu, who is battling deep divisions in Israeli society over the policies of his far-right governing coalition, including attempts to muzzle Israel’s judiciary.
- A deal with Saudi Arabia would shift the focus to a source of national pride and unity.

What’s in the Deal for the United States?

The US is looking at the growing Chinese influence in the region. The US hopes that giving security guarantees to Saudi Arabia will stop the kingdom from getting closer to China.
- Recently, Beijing successfully mediated an agreement that restored formal ties between the Saudis and Iran, long-time rivals in the region.
- This signalled the arrival of China as a global power-broker, a role for which only the US has so far had the required influence and financial strength.
Washington also wants to improve its fraught relations with Riyadh.
- They have been traditional allies, but in recent years, the two countries have had several confrontations, including over the murder of US journalist (Jamal Khashoggi) by Saudi agents.

What would the Palestinians get in the Deal?

The Palestinians are not directly involved in the negotiations of the deal.
- But unlike the US-brokered 2020 Abraham Accords, which helped Israel gain recognition from the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco, they haven’t been completely sidelined.
Saudi Arabia has publicly said it remains fully committed to the 2002 Arab Peace Initiative, in which Arab nations offered Israel normalised ties in return for a statehood deal with the Palestinians, and full Israeli withdrawal from territory captured in 1967.
However, Saudi Arabia has indicated that a deal is possible even if it falls short of providing Palestinians an independent state, as the hope of a resolution of the Israel-Palestine conflict remains low.

Why is the US Pushing the Deal Now?

A deal would be a huge foreign policy victory for Biden.
- President Joe Biden’s administration wants Israel and Saudi Arabia to ink the deal before the US Presidential elections (in November next year) - the campaign for which will pick up speed by early summer.
Another factor is Iran, which doesn’t seem to agree to stop its nuclear programme.
- This makes it all the more important for the US to strengthen ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel, both of whom see Iran as an enemy.

Implications of the Israel-Hamas Conflict on the Saudi-Israel Deal:

There is no doubt that the war and Israel’s ferocious counterattack have thrown the deal timeline off-track.
- It has also triggered sympathy for the Palestinians in the wider Arab world.
On the day the attack began, the Saudi Foreign Ministry blamed Israel, saying the Saudi government had repeatedly warned of the dangers of the explosion of the situation.
The statement took President Biden and his aides by surprise and angered American lawmakers, who have supported the deal.
- It also cast a shadow over the chances of finalising the agreement any time soon.
This is probably exactly what Hamas and possibly Iran wanted.