Context:

• Israel’s December 2025 decision to recognise Somaliland as a sovereign state marks a major diplomatic break in the Horn of Africa.
• The move risks escalating proxy rivalries, triggering political and economic pressure, and deepening militarisation in the strategically sensitive Red Sea region.
• This article highlights how Israel’s recognition of Somaliland has transformed a long-marginalised territory into a focal point of great-power rivalry, exposing China’s strategic dilemma between sovereignty principles, regional security interests, and intensifying geopolitical competition in the Horn of Africa.

China’s Strategic Dilemma over Somaliland

• Beijing’s Core Interests at Stake
  • For China, Somaliland lies at the crossroads of three vital concerns:
    • upholding the “One China” principle,
    • securing the Red Sea trade corridor, and
    • managing intensifying great-power competition in Africa.
• Official Opposition Rooted in Sovereignty
• China has condemned Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as support for separatism, reiterating that Somaliland is an inseparable part of Somalia.
• This stance reflects Beijing’s long-standing sensitivity over sovereignty and territorial integrity.
• Limits of a Rigid Doctrine
  • Unlike many contested regions, Somaliland has sustained peace, built institutions, and held competitive elections for over three decades.
  • Its stability, compared to Somalia’s chronic insecurity, exposes tensions within China’s strict sovereignty-based approach to statehood.
• The Taiwan Factor Intensifies Pressure
  • China’s dilemma is sharpened by Somaliland’s 2020 decision to establish official ties with Taiwan.
  • Taiwan’s representative office in Hargeisa and expanding cooperation have made Somaliland a rare African outlier aligned with Taipei, directly challenging Beijing’s “One China” principle.

Strategic Importance of the Horn of Africa for China

• A Vital Maritime Choke Point
  • China’s concerns go beyond ideology. The Bab el-Mandeb Strait—linking the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden—is crucial for Chinese trade and energy flows under the Maritime Silk Road.
  • Beijing has called it a “jugular vein” of global commerce.
• Security Presence near Djibouti
  • To safeguard these interests, China established its first overseas military base in Djibouti in 2017, ensuring a sustained security footprint near the choke point.
• Challenge from Somaliland’s Recognition
  • Israel’s recognition of Somaliland could upset the regional balance.
  • If Somaliland gains wider legitimacy, it may emerge as an alternative logistics and security hub along the Gulf of Aden, potentially backed by the United Arab Emirates and the United States—diluting China’s leverage near Djibouti.
• An Uncomfortable Strategic Trade-off
  • Beijing must oppose Somaliland’s recognition and limit diplomatic space for Taiwan, yet excessive pressure risks pushing Hargeisa closer to China’s rivals.
  • Heavy-handed coercion could also undermine China’s image as a non-interfering partner.
• Likely Chinese Response
  • China may adopt a hybrid approach: economic pressure, elite lobbying, and information campaigns—using platforms like StarTimes—to shape narratives on territorial integrity.
  • Diplomatically, Beijing can leverage its role in the United Nations Security Council to block momentum toward broader international recognition of Somaliland.

China’s Pro-Palestinian Stance Adds Diplomatic Complexity

• China’s increasingly vocal support for Palestinian rights and criticism of Israel’s actions in Gaza reinforce Beijing’s moral opposition to Israel’s recognition of Somaliland.
• While this resonates with Arab and Global South audiences, it risks drawing China deeper into Middle Eastern political rivalries, complicating its traditionally pragmatic neutrality.
• A Shifting Regional Chessboard
  • The broader geopolitical context sharpens China’s dilemma.
  • Ethiopia’s 2024 memorandum to recognise Somaliland in exchange for port access, growing interest in the United States Congress, and tacit backing from the United Arab Emirates suggest Israel’s move could catalyse wider diplomatic recognition.
• Rising Costs for China’s Status Quo Strategy
  • Each additional recognition weakens China’s ability to diplomatically isolate Somaliland and raises the strategic costs of maintaining the status quo.
  • Beijing’s core concern is not only sovereignty, but also preventing greater Taiwanese visibility, deeper Israeli and Western access to the Red Sea, and the emergence of a rival security architecture near Djibouti.
• From Peripheral Issue to Great-Power Flashpoint
  • Israel’s decision has forced China into a difficult balance between principle and pragmatism.
  • Somaliland is no longer a diplomatic footnote; it now sits at the centre of great-power competition in the Horn of Africa, exposing the limits of China’s approach to sovereignty, security, and influence in a region critical to global trade and geopolitics.