Context:

• Public discourse on population has evolved from fears of uncontrolled growth and resource strain to concerns over rapidly declining fertility rates.
• The article highlights how public discussions on population have evolved—from concerns about unchecked growth and environmental impact to current anxieties over declining fertility rates, reflecting changing demographic priorities.

Contrasting Views on Population Trends

• While voices like Elon Musk warn of imminent population decline and "civilisation dwindling to nothing," global data suggests otherwise.
• According to the UN World Population Prospects (WPP) 2024, the world population is projected to rise from 8.2 billion in 2024 to a peak of 10.3 billion by the 2080s, before gradually declining.

Misinterpretations and Analytical Gaps

• Much of the alarm over falling fertility rates is analytically flawed. Two key points are often overlooked:
  • Projections Are Not Predictions
    • Population projections depend on assumptions about future birth and death rates. The further into the future, the greater the uncertainty.
  • Population Momentum
    • Even with below-replacement fertility rates (TFR < 2.1), populations can continue growing for decades.
    • This is due to a large share of the population still being in reproductive age. Shrinking does not happen instantly or in a straight line.

The Real Fertility Crisis: Barriers to Desired Family Size

• According to the UNFPA’s 2025 report, many individuals worldwide face obstacles in having the number of children they desire.
• Among 14,000 people surveyed across 14 countries:
  • 1 in 5 felt unable to have their preferred number of children.
  • 23% experienced delays in having children, and 40% ultimately gave up on their desire for more children.
• Key Barriers Identified
  • Across both high- and low-fertility countries, common factors limiting family size include:
    • Infertility: 13% (India)
    • Financial limitations: 38% (India), 58% (South Korea)
    • Housing limitations: 22% (India), 31% (South Korea)
    • Lack of quality childcare: 18%
    • Unemployment: 21%
• Case Study: South Korea's Fertility Efforts
  • Despite spending over $200 billion in 20 years to boost fertility, South Korea saw a slight 7.3% rise in births in early 2025, linked to increased marriages and a more positive view of family life.
  • Yet, financial and housing constraints remain dominant concerns.

Rethinking Fertility Policies: Focus on Choice and Support, Not Control

• The fear of falling birth rates has often unfairly targeted women, curbing reproductive rights and pushing them into traditional childbearing roles.
• However, most people still want around two children on average but face barriers in achieving that.
• Problems with Target-Driven Pronatalism
  • Measures like baby bonuses and one-time benefits:
    • Reinforce outdated gender roles.
    • Overlook men’s role in parenting.
    • Often fail to create lasting fertility changes.

Conclusion: Societal and Workforce Changes

• Instead of coercing women into motherhood, countries should:
  • Promote gender-equal workforce participation.
  • Remove penalties for working mothers.
  • Stop linking population policies to religion or nationalism. Instead, focus on creating a society where families get real help and support.