Kashmir, Terrorism, and India's Long-Term Security Strategy
April 30, 2025

Context:

  • Recent terrorist attacks on tourists in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, highlight the persistent threat from Pakistan’s deep state.
  • The attack is part of Pakistan's attempts to derail democratic normalcy and development in the region.

Lessons for India:

  • Historical parallels:
    • America’s strategic myopia: America evacuated its personnel from the roof of its Saigon embassy via helicopter (on 30 April, 1975) and lost a proxy war in Vietnam.
    • End of soft separatism in J&K: Same year, Sheikh Abdullah returned to democratic politics in J&K (as the elected CM of J&K), ending 22 years of soft separatism.
  • Modern misjudgments - Trump and Munir:
    • Trump’s proposal to “empty Gaza” (to make it a Mediterranean Florida) ignores historical lessons.
    • Pakistan Army Chief Asif Munir echoed outdated ideas - Jinnah's two-nation theory and Z.A. Bhutto’s "jugular vein" rhetoric on Kashmir. Both ignore India’s institutional strength, strategic autonomy, and economic rise.

Three Pillars of India’s Long-Term Kashmir Strategy:

  • Specialisation - Targeted security operations:
    • Intelligence-driven operations led to the formation of Rashtriya Rifles (1990) and Special Operations Groups (1993).
    • Replacement of BSF with CRPF (1995) and CBI with NIA for counter-terror financing shows institutional adaptability.
  • Moderation - Minimum use of force:
    • India followed a path opposite to the US's "search and destroy" in Vietnam.
    • Strategy rooted in public order with minimal resistance, echoing Subrata Mitra's “Governance by Stealth”.
    • Symbols of legitimacy: Surrender of terrorists at Hazratbal (1993), state election voting lines (2024).
  • Democracy - Civil participation in conflict zones:
    • Frequent elections, civil service involvement, and respecting political diversity, even those who espoused soft separatism.
    • Reflects a deeper commitment to democratic processes versus Pakistan’s unstable governance (no PM completing a full term since 1947).

Killings Signal Pakistan’s Desperation:

  • India’s evolving strategy - abrogation of Article 370, cross-border strikes, strategic autonomy, and infrastructure development (e.g., railways) - is yielding results.
  • Terrorist attacks are a reaction to India’s success in integrating J&K, not a sign of weakness.

Message from Kashmir:

  • Kashmiris: After the murders at Baisaran (Pahalgam, J&K), Kashmiris are on streets blaming Pakistan for the attack.
  • Security forces of India:
    • 1,608 J&K police, 511 CRPF, and hundreds of army personnel’s supreme sacrifice in protecting J&K depicts that “The flag does not flutter in the wind, but with the last breath of martyrs.”
    • So, “Veer Bhogya Vasundhara” (The brave shall inherit the earth) is the symbolic message from the forces.

Conclusion - Strategic Resolve over Reaction:

  • India's response must be seen not as war-mongering but as measured, courageous defence of peace.
  • The world must draw lessons from India’s experience: institutional resilience, democratic depth, and calibrated security actions.

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