Context:

• India’s West Asia policy has sparked domestic debate, prompting the need for an objective assessment focused on key trends, given the significant national interests involved.
• This article highlights India’s evolving West Asia policy, examining key geopolitical trends, strategic recalibration, domestic criticism, and emerging opportunities shaping India’s diplomatic, economic, and security interests in the region.

Two Key Trends Shaping India’s West Asia Policy

1. Rising Diplomatic Engagement with West Asia

• Over the past decade, India has significantly deepened engagement with West Asia. PM Modi made 15 visits to GCC countries, along with visits to Israel (twice), Iran, and Palestine.
• India signed Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (CEPA) with the UAE and Oman, and is negotiating similar deals with the GCC and Israel.
• The GCC is India’s largest socio-economic partner, with:
  • $160+ billion bilateral trade
  • 10 million Indian diaspora
• Key outcomes
  • De-hyphenation with Pakistan in West Asia policy
  • Stronger defence and security ties
  • India’s image as a responsible status quo power
  • However, promised investments from the region have lagged.

1. Changing Security Dynamics in the Gulf

• Gulf monarchies prioritise external partners based on their ability to ensure: regime security → state stability → regional balance.
• Since October 2023, escalating conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, along with Iranian drone and missile threats, have intensified insecurity.
• This has led GCC countries to reconsider reliance on the traditional U.S.-led “Pax Americana” and search for alternative security partnerships.

India’s Diplomatic Reset in West Asia

• India’s recent policy shift reflects recognition of both trends.
• Focus on strategic alignment with key West Asian countries.
• Key initiatives:
  • PM Modi’s visit to Israel
  • Direct outreach to GCC leaders during early conflict phase
  • Engagement with Iran as well
• Signals:
  • India’s support for regional security and stability
  • Prioritisation of core national interests

Features of the New Diplomatic Doctrine

• Shift towards “hard diplomacy” and realism
• Departure from traditional balancing:
  • No reiteration of “please-all” positions
    • India refrained from adopting a balancing stance on sensitive issues such as the two-state solution and Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
  • No reliance on third-party narratives
• Reflects greater strategic confidence and autonomy in foreign policy

Domestic Criticism of the Policy Reset

• Key concerns raised:
  • Timing of Israel visit (just before conflict escalation)
  • Perceived dilution of support for Palestine and Iran
  • Alleged alignment with Western interests
  • Risk of strategic overreach and security exposure
• Government’s Defence of the Approach
  • Visit timing likely pre-scheduled, without foreknowledge of conflict escalation
  • West Asia’s volatile environment makes retrospective criticism (hindsight bias) easier
  • The visit was primarily bilateral, not linked to impending military developments

Global Responses and Selective Criticism

• Criticism of India’s policy “immorality” is misplaced; other powers show greater inconsistency:
  • China imported nearly 90% of sanctioned Iranian oil, offering only rhetorical support.
  • Russia, despite a 20-year strategic pact with Iran, has underdelivered.
  • Pakistan shifted from aggressive rhetoric to aligning with the U.S.
• Many Arab and Muslim countries remained largely silent during the Gaza conflict.

India’s Policy Reset: Gains and Risks

• Recognition of Geopolitical Shifts
  • India’s reset reflects changing power dynamics in West Asia.
  • However, the shift may have tilted excessively, requiring recalibration toward balanced national interests.
• Need for Strategic Flexibility
  • West Asia remains highly volatile (mercurial).
  • India must keep diplomatic options open rather than over-aligning with any one side.
• Importance of Key Regional Relationships
  • The Palestine issue remains politically and diplomatically significant.
  • Iran remains crucial for India:
    • Key oil supplier
    • Potential market for trade, reconstruction, and services
    • Strategic location bordering Pakistan and Afghanistan
• Emerging Regional Fault Lines
• Growing Arab discomfort with U.S.-Israel actions
• Saudi–UAE tensions
• Iraq–Iran estrangement
• Increasingly assertive roles of Pakistan and Türkiye
• These trends require a more nuanced and inclusive Indian approach.
• Gaps in India’s Response
  • Delayed and Limited Engagement - India could have responded faster to key developments like:
    • Assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader
    • Leadership transition in Iran
  • Need for Diplomatic Assertiveness
    • India should avoid excessive political correctness and silence.
    • Diplomatic flexibility allows disagreement without damaging ties with the U.S. or Israel.
• • Expanding Relief Efforts
    • India could have provided greater humanitarian assistance to populations affected by the conflict.

Strategic Opportunities for India in West Asia

• Erosion of the “Oil-for-Security” Model
  • The U.S.-led “Oil-for-Security” arrangement with GCC states is weakening amid the ongoing conflict with Iran.
  • The U.S. acted without consulting GCC countries, ignoring their concerns.
  • American military bases in the Gulf became targets of Iranian retaliation, exposing regional vulnerabilities. GCC states now fear U.S. unpredictability and possible withdrawal.
  • This may push them to diversify security partnerships, potentially including India.
• Economic Realignment and “GCC+1” Strategy
  • Iranian attacks have disrupted supply chains and business activity in the Gulf.
  • The GCC’s image as a stable economic hub has been weakened.
  • There is growing interest in a “GCC+1” diversification strategy.
  • India can position itself as a reliable economic and investment destination, attracting: Capital; Talent.
  • This presents a historic opportunity to reclaim economic advantages previously lost to Gulf economies.
• Need for a Realist and Dynamic Foreign Policy
  • India’s foreign policy must be:
    • Realistic and interest-driven
    • Flexible and adaptive
    • Consistent yet responsive to change
  • As India’s West Asia policy evolves, it must prioritise national interest over fixed alignments, echoing the principle:
    • Nations have no permanent allies or enemies—only permanent interests.