Why in the News?

According to the Sample Registration System (SRS) report for 2021 released by the Registrar General of India (RGI), the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in the country has remained constant at 2.0 in 2021.

What’s in Today’s Article?

• TFR (Introduction, Trend in 2021, Key State-level Trends, Demographic Shifts, Policy Responses, Future Outlook)

Introduction

• India’s demographic profile is undergoing significant changes, as highlighted in the latest Sample Registration System (SRS) report for 2021, released by the Registrar General of India (RGI).
• The report confirms that the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) remains constant at 2.0, the same as in 2020.
• This reflects a continued trend towards population stabilization, with critical implications for social, economic, and healthcare policies.

Total Fertility Rate Trends in 2021

• The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) represents the average number of children a woman is expected to bear during her reproductive years.
• The replacement level TFR, required to sustain a stable population, is 2.1. India reaching a TFR of 2.0 suggests that it is on the path toward population stabilization, a major demographic milestone.
• Key State-Level Trends:
  • Bihar reported the highest TFR at 3.0, indicating continuing high fertility trends in the state.
  • Delhi and West Bengal recorded the lowest TFR at 1.4, well below replacement level.
  • Other states achieving or falling below replacement level include Tamil Nadu (1.5), Andhra Pradesh (1.5), Kerala (1.5), Maharashtra (1.5), and Punjab (1.5).
  • Gujarat and Haryana reported a TFR of 2.0, while Assam stood at 2.1, exactly at replacement level.

Demographic Shifts: Age Distribution and Elderly Population

• India’s age structure has experienced significant shifts over the past five decades. The proportion of the population aged 0-14 years has declined from 41.2% in 1971 to 24.8% in 2021.
• In contrast, the working-age population (15-59 years) has risen from 53.4% to 66.2%, positioning India advantageously for a demographic dividend.
• Growth in Elderly Population:
  • The share of people aged 60 and above has increased from 6% in 1971 to 9% in 2021.
  • Kerala has the highest elderly population at 14.4%, followed by Tamil Nadu (12.9%) and Himachal Pradesh (12.3%).
  • States with the lowest elderly population include Bihar (6.9%), Assam (7.0%), and Delhi (7.1%).

Changing Marriage Patterns and Their Impact

• One of the critical factors influencing fertility rates is the rising age at marriage.
• The mean age at effective marriage for females has increased from 19.3 years in 1990 to 22.5 years in 2021.
• This trend reflects improved female education levels, increased workforce participation, and greater awareness of reproductive health, directly contributing to lower fertility rates.

Policy Responses and the Need for Updated Data

• During the 2024 Interim Budget, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced plans for a high-power committee to address challenges posed by fast population growth and demographic changes.
• However, despite such announcements, India’s Census, originally scheduled for 2021, remains delayed, limiting comprehensive demographic analysis.
• The SRS data highlights that India’s population growth is no longer as “fast” as perceived.
• In fact, many states have reached or gone below the replacement level fertility rate, indicating a natural slowing of population growth.

Future Outlook: Opportunities and Challenges

• While the stabilization of TFR is a positive indicator for controlling population growth, it also brings new challenges.
• The rising elderly population will increase demand for healthcare services, pensions, and social welfare schemes.
• Simultaneously, India must capitalize on its demographic dividend by creating employment opportunities and strengthening social infrastructure to accommodate a growing working-age population.
• India’s demographic transition presents a critical window to implement forward-looking policies in healthcare, education, employment, and social welfare to ensure balanced and inclusive growth.