Context:

• India recently announced its updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) for 2030–2035 under the Paris Agreement.
• These targets emerge amid a fragile global order marked by geopolitical conflicts, weakening multilateralism, and renewed reliance on fossil fuels by developed nations.

India’s Enhanced Climate Targets:

• Emissions intensity reduction:
  • Emissions intensity of GDP growth has now been set at 47% reduction by 2035 (from 2005 levels) against the previous target of 45% and the actual figure of 36% already achieved.
  • Insight: Incremental gains become harder as efficiency improves, yet India is likely to overachieve.
• Non-fossil fuel energy capacity:
  • The previous target of 50% for 2030 has already been overtaken, as the current figure is 52.5%. The target of 60% for 2035 is realistic, given a much more challenging energy outlook.
  • Key concern: Installed capacity is not equal to actual generation, as renewable energy contributes only ~20% of electricity generation currently.
  • Need: To improve grid integration, storage, and dispatch efficiency.
• Carbon sink expansion through afforestation:
  • Against the previous target of adding 2.5-3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent by 2030, the current achievement is estimated to be 2.296 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent.
  • The target for 2035 has now been set at 3.5-4 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent, which appears realistic.
  • Risks: Biodiversity loss, monoculture impacts, and inclusion of plantations may undermine ecological integrity.

Adaptation - A Strategic Priority:

• Why does adaptation matter? Even with zero emissions, climate impacts persist due to accumulated greenhouse gases.
• Key measures:
  • Heat Action Plans (HAPs) for rising temperatures.
  • Monitoring Himalayan glaciers and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs).
  • Protection of Mangroves (coastal defense), marine ecosystems (fish stocks, biodiversity).
• Regional cooperation: Collaboration with neighbours essential for Himalayan ecosystem monitoring, and maritime ecological security.

Clean Energy Transition Pathways:

• Green hydrogen:
  • India’s green hydrogen mission holds great promise in meeting the twin challenge of climate change and energy security.
  • Challenge: Currently, hydrogen is a byproduct from petrochemical production, so its generation is carbon intensive.
  • Solution: Hydrogen can be produced through electrolysis, but whether this process uses fossil energy or renewable energy will determine how “green” and clean hydrogen can be as a fuel.
• Nuclear energy push:
  • The government has set an ambitious target of 100 GW of nuclear power by 2047, coinciding with the Viksit Bharat target, against the current installed capacity of only 8.8 GW.
  • Policy support:
    • The SHANTI Act 2025 opens this hitherto sensitive sector to the private sector, permitting up to 49% FDI in nuclear power generation.
    • It has also amended the liability clause in the existing legislation to bring it in line with international practice.
    • Promotes Small Modular Reactors (SMR) [200-250 MW capacity currently under development], providing decentralised and distributed power.

Structural Challenge - Energy Poverty:

• India's annual per capita electricity consumption is 1,460 KWh as against a world average of 3,800 KWh.
• The challenge lies in significantly increasing this consumption but in as ecologically sustainable a manner as possible.

Global Context and Constraints:

• Meagre climate finance: Less than $100 billion a year (developed countries promised $100 billion a year since the Paris Agreement).
• Challenges: This meagre climate finance will be further squeezed under the impact of war, incipient inflation and competing demands of national security and relief from economic distress.
• Need: The world needs to recognise that energy transition requires resources that are limited in the absence of international support.

Key Challenges for India:

• Domestic: Bridging the gap between capacity and generation. Ensuring ecological integrity in afforestation. Scaling clean technologies affordably. Managing energy transition with limited resources.
• External: Lack of adequate climate finance. Weak global cooperation mechanisms. Pressure on developing countries to bear disproportionate burden.

Way Forward:

• Policy and technology: Invest in energy storage, smart grids, and transmission. Promote truly green hydrogen via renewables. Accelerate SMR-based nuclear expansion.
• Ecological balance: Prioritise natural forests over plantations. Strengthen coastal and marine ecosystem protection.
• Adaptation and resilience: Scale up HAPs nationwide. Enhance disaster preparedness (GLOFs, cyclones).
• Diplomacy and cooperation: Push for climate justice and finance accountability. Strengthen regional climate cooperation frameworks.

Conclusion:

• India’s updated NDCs present a credible and balanced climate strategy, tackling the twin challenges of climate change and energy security with its own limited resources, and navigating the dual imperatives of development and sustainability.
• India’s approach offers a pragmatic model for the Global South, but without robust international support, the transition risks being slower and more uneven.