Why in the News?

India’s population is estimated to have reached 146.39 crore by April, says a new UN demographic report.

What’s in Today’s Article?

• India’s Fertility Rate (Background, Demographic Transition, Financial Constraints, Social & Family Dynamics, India’s Demographic Dividend, Policy Recommendations)

India’s Fertility Rate Falls Below Replacement Level

• India’s fertility rate has declined to 1.9, falling below the replacement level of 2.1, according to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) report State of World Population 2025.
• This demographic transition, while not unique to India, signals a long-term shift in population trends driven by a complex mix of economic, social, and health-related factors.
• Despite this decline, India remains the world’s most populous country, with an estimated population of 146.39 crore as of April 2025.
• The population is projected to peak around 170 crore over the next four decades before beginning to shrink.

From High Fertility to Demographic Transition

• In 1960, Indian women had an average of six children. Since then, India has achieved a dramatic reduction in fertility rates, largely through enhanced access to reproductive healthcare, greater educational outreach, and sustained efforts at women’s empowerment.
• The UNFPA attributes this demographic shift not to coercive policies but to an organic transition supported by awareness campaigns and policy interventions.
• The decline aligns with India’s own projections, such as those published in the National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5), which pegged the 2022 fertility rate at 2.0 nationally, with urban fertility at 1.6 and rural fertility at 2.1.
• Some states, however, still have above-average fertility rates, including Bihar (2.98), Meghalaya (2.9), Uttar Pradesh (2.35), Jharkhand (2.26), and Manipur (2.2).

Financial Constraints and Changing Aspirations

• The report reveals that financial strain is a leading factor in decisions to have fewer children.
• Around 38% of Indian respondents cited economic challenges, while 21% pointed to job insecurity or unemployment.
• Globally, similar concerns are evident, with an average of 39% across 14 countries expressing financial limitations as the primary reason for having fewer children than desired.
• There is also a growing disconnect between the ideal number of children and the number couples expect to have.
• While 41% of women surveyed in India considered two children as ideal, 7% of respondents below 50 stated they expected fewer than the ideal due to economic and social pressures.

Social and Familial Dynamics

• Family dynamics play a pivotal role in fertility decisions. Around 19% of respondents said their partner preferred fewer children, and 15% said lack of support in household responsibilities affected their reproductive choices.
• Additionally, healthcare professionals were also cited as influencing decisions, 14% of Indian respondents said pressure from doctors or health workers led them to have fewer children than they desired. This highlights a concerning gap between reproductive rights and institutional practices.

India’s Demographic Dividend and Ageing Population

• With 68% of India’s population in the working-age group (15-64 years), the country still enjoys a significant demographic dividend.
• However, this window is not infinite. As life expectancy increases, projected at 71 years for men and 74 for women, India’s elderly population (currently 7%) is expected to rise steadily in the coming decades.
• This shift necessitates strategic investments in health, social security, and workforce policies to sustain economic growth even as fertility declines.

Beyond Population Numbers: The Real Fertility Crisis

• The UNFPA report emphasizes that the real crisis is not overpopulation or underpopulation but rather the inability of individuals to realize their fertility intentions.
• It calls for safeguarding reproductive agency, the right to make informed choices about sex, contraception, and family planning, especially in rapidly changing socio-economic contexts.
• This shift in framing from a numbers-based discourse to a rights-based approach underscores the need to go beyond demographic targets and prioritize empowerment, choice, and health access.

Policy Considerations and Future Outlook

• India must adapt its health and welfare policies to reflect this demographic reality. Key focus areas should include:

• Enhancing women’s participation in the workforce.
• Expanding social support for childcare and elderly care.
• Reforming workplace norms to reduce the economic burden of parenting.
• Investing in universal access to contraception and fertility counselling.

• The upcoming 2027 Census, delayed from 2021, will offer updated insights critical to informing policy.
• In the meantime, India’s demographic strategy must pivot from population control to inclusive, rights-based population governance.