Why in news?

Despite being hailed as a defining partnership of the 21st century, the India-U.S. relationship is currently facing turbulence.

While the U.S. administration insists that ties remain strong and a top priority—citing cooperation across space, defence, energy, trade, and technology—there is growing concern that recent tensions may reflect deeper, structural issues rather than just short-term political shifts under President Trump.

Notwithstanding high-level engagements and initiatives like the COMPACT, doubts have emerged over the long-term trajectory of the partnership.

What’s in Today’s Article?

• Turbulence in India-U.S. Ties Amid Trump's Sharp Turn
• Growing Skepticism and Structural Tensions in India-U.S. Relations
• Trump-Pakistan Bonhomie Deepens India’s Worries
• Strategic Gains at Risk
• Conclusion

Turbulence in India-U.S. Ties Amid Trump's Sharp Turn

• The Indian government was left reeling after U.S. President Donald Trump launched a scathing 12-hour tirade targeting India’s trade policies and strategic choices.
• Trump announced a 25% tariff hike and an additional “penalty” for India’s trade with Russia, effective August 1.
• American experts now question India’s global ambitions, calling them delusional and hinting at strategic asymmetry in the partnership.
• This shift reflects a broader ideological divide, where nationalism in both countries fuels suspicion and unpredictability.
• America’s internal split between ‘America First’ sceptics and India optimists mirrors the larger tension: India’s assertive global image clashes with the U.S.’s traditional discomfort with power projection by rising nations, even allies.
• As India transitions from a developmental narrative to a power-seeking one, the bilateral relationship faces a critical test of resilience and mutual understanding.

Growing Skepticism and Structural Tensions in India-U.S. Relations

• A rising group of U.S. sceptics has begun to question India’s trajectory, pointing to concerns over its perceived illiberal turn and assertive foreign policy under PM Modi.
• India’s “India First” approach maintains strategic autonomy and includes assertive military responses to terrorism—something that makes the U.S., especially under Trump, uneasy due to fears of nuclear escalation.
• The U.S. prides itself on managing relationships with rival nations independently, but it is less comfortable when partners like India do the same.
• Washington remains critical of India’s strong ties with Russia and Iran, while expecting Delhi not to challenge its engagement with Pakistan.
• India’s broader global engagement strategy—balancing relations across geopolitical divides like Russia-Ukraine and BRICS-QUAD—should be an asset, yet it has become a source of friction.
• Additionally, protectionist policies aimed at boosting India’s domestic manufacturing have strained economic ties, with the U.S. frustrated by limited access to Indian markets.
• This complex mix of strategic divergence, geopolitical mistrust, and unmet trade expectations is gradually eroding the sheen of the once-optimistic India-U.S. partnership.

Trump-Pakistan Bonhomie Deepens India’s Worries

• What further irked New Delhi was Trump’s announcement of a new trade deal with Pakistan, including collaboration on developing the country’s supposed oil reserves.
• The U.S.-Pakistan reset, culminating in Trump hosting Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir at the White House, has deeply unsettled Indian officials.
  • This came on the heels of U.S. strikes on Iran and increased defence cooperation between Washington and Islamabad.
• India Suspects Underlying Motives
  • Indian analysts believe Trump’s outburst may be driven by two factors.
  • First, his negotiating style—known for aggressive tariff impositions to gain leverage—mirrors past tactics with China.
  • Second, India’s public rebuttal of Trump’s claim that he could broker peace between India and Pakistan likely embarrassed him.
  • This includes PM Modi’s firm clarification and repeated denials by Indian officials.

Strategic Gains at Risk

• Indian diplomats fear that Trump’s rhetoric could reverse two decades of strategic progress in India-U.S. ties.
• From sanctions post-Pokhran tests to the historic Indo-U.S. nuclear deal, and the elevation of defence cooperation and the Quad, both countries have come a long way.
• Trump himself had extended strong support to India in past crises like Pulwama and the China standoff.
• However, India suspects that its ties with Russia and Iran, combined with Pakistan’s recent outreach to Trump’s inner circle—particularly in the cryptocurrency sector—have soured relations.

Conclusion

India is cautiously assessing Trump’s statements and their implications. Experts advise a restrained, calculated diplomatic response.

The challenge lies in three areas: maintaining strategic autonomy while balancing U.S. pressure, rebuilding access to Trump’s close advisors, and repairing long-term trust damaged by recent events. As the geopolitical landscape shifts, India must re-evaluate its engagement strategy with a volatile yet important partner.