Context:

• India’s decision to host the European Union’s institutional leadership as chief guests at the 2026 Republic Day parade signals a shift beyond symbolism toward bloc-level engagement.
• As bilateral diplomacy grows more complex—marked by persistent neighbourhood challenges and friction with major powers like the US and China—India’s strategic openings may lie elsewhere.
• The coming year presents “diplomatic white spaces”: global issues that demand coordination but lack credible leadership.
• By building coalitions and focusing on priorities it can sustain, India can help shape rules and deliver global public goods in these leadership gaps.

Europe as India’s First Diplomatic Test

• The presence of Ursula von der Leyen and António Luís Santos da Costa at the 2026 Republic Day parade signals renewed momentum in India–EU ties.
  • Ursula von der Leyen currently serves as the President of the European Commission.
  • António Luís Santos da Costa currently serves as the President of the European Council.
• The focus is the long-pending India–EU Free Trade Agreement, where engagement must be with the European Union as a whole, not just individual capitals.
• This partnership goes beyond tariffs. It involves rules on market access, data protection, competition, and sustainability.
• If India treats the deal as a way to reduce risks, it gains better access to European markets, a place in new global value chains, and some protection from US trade pressures.
• However, stricter compliance costs for Indian firms are inevitable. The opportunity exists because Europe wants to cut dependence on China and manage uncertainty from the US. India must act fast, as such diplomatic windows do not stay open for long.

BRICS: A Political Test for India

• BRICS in 2026 is larger but less focused. New members want different outcomes at different speeds.
• This raises a basic question: what should BRICS do, and can India help give it direction?
• Many members seek a stronger Global South voice and fairer development finance. But the group’s purpose is contested.
• As chair in 2026, India can push BRICS toward practical results by using New Development Bank guarantees and tools that turn statements into action.
• India must also manage risks. U.S. tariff threats against countries seen as aligning with BRICS raise costs.
• India gains little from anti-West rhetoric or de-dollarisation drives that could deter Western capital and technology. Reform, not rejection, should be India’s line.

The Quad: Turning Capability into Public Goods

• The Quad is another diplomatic white space. If India hosts a Quad leaders’ summit, it could welcome Donald Trump, adding political weight and higher expectations.
• The Quad’s work on maritime awareness and resilient ports matters to Indian Ocean countries that want help without being pulled into rivalries. India can add value by turning Quad capabilities into shared services others can use.
  • India’s rapid response during Operation Sagar Bandhu after Cyclone Ditwah in Sri Lanka showed how flexible assets can deliver help without drama.
• Success will depend on the U.S. managing trade disputes without harming wider cooperation.

Limits of Big Forums

• Large global forums face strain. The United Nations remains vital for legitimacy but is weak at delivery when major powers disagree. Real outcomes are shifting to smaller coalitions that can act.
• The G20 shows similar stress. Political disputes and agenda narrowing risk sidelining Global South priorities and reducing inclusiveness.

The Big Picture for 2026

• India’s momentum in 2026 will come from filling leadership gaps.
• Europe is about standards, BRICS about practical delivery, and the Quad about public goods.
• Turning these white spaces into working arrangements is India’s real opportunity.

India’s Strategic Choice in a Fragmented World

• The AI Impact Summit in Delhi in February 2026 offers India a chance to bring governments, companies, and researchers together where interests overlap.
• As the US experiments with new forums, including a proposed “Board of Peace,” India will need to be selective about where it invests diplomatic energy.
• An invitation for India to join Pax Silica, a US-led group focused on AI and semiconductor supply chains, shows how quickly new platforms are emerging.
• In a divided world, influence will not come from the biggest forums but from smaller, workable coalitions. India’s strength in 2026 will lie in choosing the right tables—and making them deliver results.