Context

• The return of the Taliban to power in Afghanistan in 2021 reshaped the strategic landscape of South Asia, reviving old rivalries and forcing neighbouring states to recalibrate foreign policy choices.
• For India, historically opposed to Taliban rule and supportive of anti-Taliban forces, the new geopolitical reality demands a delicate balance between national security concerns, regional competition with Pakistan, and the preservation of long-term interests in Afghanistan.
• Amid these developments, it is important to highlight India’s emerging strategy of conditional and cautious engagement, rooted in pragmatic assessment rather than ideological alignment.

Strategic Calculus and India’s Core Interests

• India’s Afghanistan policy is shaped by three long-standing objectives.
  • First, New Delhi seeks to protect its substantial investments and goodwill accumulated between 2001 and 2021, when India was one of Afghanistan’s largest regional donors.
  • Second, it aims to prevent Afghan territory from becoming a sanctuary for anti-India militant networks, a scenario that resembles the Taliban’s first regime.
  • Third, preventing Afghanistan from serving as a strategic extension of Pakistan’s security establishment remains a priority, given India–Pakistan rivalry and Islamabad's historical influence over the Taliban.
• These intertwined interests help explain India’s measured outreach to the Taliban government, including the recent upgrade of its mission in Kabul and diplomatic engagement with Taliban officials.
• India is exploring whether the Taliban possess a degree of autonomy from Pakistan, particularly in light of deteriorating Pakistan-Taliban relations and cross-border tensions.
• In this shifting geopolitical context, New Delhi’s policy reflects realpolitik tempered by caution.

The Temptation and Risks of Recognition

• Although growing diplomatic contact may suggest that formal recognition of the Taliban is on the table, there are profound risks associated with such a step.
• Recognition could accelerate cooperation with Kabul, counterbalance Pakistan’s influence, and capitalise on emerging rifts between Islamabad and the Taliban.
• Yet it would also grant legitimacy to a regime whose governance remains deeply repressive and exclusionary.
• The Taliban’s unchanged ideological foundations raise questions about the durability of their rule and the ethics of normalisation.
• Their unprecedented restrictions on women’s education, public participation, and employment create severe socio-economic consequences and undermine Afghanistan’s long-term stability.
• With an economy contracted by one-third and nearly half the population in need of humanitarian assistance, the regime’s internal fragility remains a serious concern.
• Thus, immediate recognition may be strategically shortsighted, risking India’s leverage and implicating it in the Taliban’s governance failures.

Security Concerns and Terrorist Networks

• The Taliban’s claim of breaking ties with transnational jihadist networks remains
• Despite public pledges of non-interference, credible international assessments indicate continued linkages with groups such as al-Qaeda, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, and the Pakistani Taliban.
• While the Taliban currently suppress overt militant activity to maintain international legitimacy, these networks remain embedded within the Afghan security landscape.
• A weakening Taliban regime could unleash these groups, making today's tactical enemy's enemy tomorrow’s direct threat.
• For India, this underscores the necessity of vigilance and strategic patience rather than premature endorsement.

The Way Forward: Toward a Balanced and Long-Term Approach

• India’s policy trajectory suggests neither wholesale acceptance nor isolation of the Taliban regime.
• Instead, it pursues a gradual, conditional engagement, maintaining diplomatic channels to influence Taliban behaviour, safeguard security interests, and support Afghan civilians, while retaining leverage through international and regional forums.
• Crucially, India recognizes that sustainable stability in Afghanistan cannot be achieved solely through coercive religious rule but requires economic recovery, political inclusion, and regional integration.
• In this view, Afghanistan’s need for assistance exceeds India’s need for Taliban cooperation.
• Rather than yielding to short-term geopolitical temptation, New Delhi seeks to shape a future where Afghanistan remains neither a security threat nor a satellite in Pakistan's strategic orbit.

Conclusion

• While pragmatic engagement is necessary given geopolitical realities, India must avoid legitimising a regime that remains ideologically inflexible and structurally unstable.
• The recommended approach, engage, but do not endorse; influence, but do not yield leverage, aligns with India's long-term interests, regional stability, and commitment to the Afghan people’s rights and aspirations.
• In a region defined by shifting alliances and unresolved conflicts, restraint paired with strategic foresight may be India’s most effective tool.