Context:

• The ongoing conflict in West Asia has disrupted LPG supply chains to India, triggering a domestic fuel crisis.
• This has led to rising LPG prices, panic buying, black-marketing, and economic distress in small industries.
• The situation has broader implications, extending beyond energy security to food security and nutrition outcome.

Immediate Impacts of LPG Supply Disruption:

• Rising household expenditure:
  • According to the Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) 2023-24, fuel and light account for 6.1% (rural) and 5.6% (urban) of monthly per capita expenditure.
  • Increase in LPG prices directly raises the cost of cooking meals, comparable to spending on health and education.
• Economic ripple effects:
  • Reduced LPG availability affects small-scale industries reliant on LPG, urban informal workforce, leading to reverse migration (similar to COVID-19 trends).
  • Government response: Prioritisation of domestic consumption over commercial use, and diversification of import sources.

Indirect Effects on Food Systems:

• Rising cost of agricultural production:
  • India’s dependence on fertiliser imports makes it vulnerable to global disruptions.
  • Increased costs of fertilisers, mechanisation, and transportation - likely to trigger food inflation.
• Supply chain disruptions: Higher logistics costs impact availability and affordability of food items, especially perishables.

Impact on Nutritional Security:

• Cost of a Healthy Diet (CoHD):
  • Based on ICMR dietary guidelines, average CoHD (non-vegetarian diet) was ₹73.1/person/day (2023-24).
  • This indicates that 25–49% of the population are already unable to afford a healthy diet.
• Role of cooking fuel costs: Meal preparation adds ₹9.5 extra, including ₹6.5 from fuel costs alone. This raises unaffordability to 32–62% of the population.
• Post-crisis scenario: Rising LPG prices and food inflation may further result in declining dietary diversity and nutrition intake. This will create a disproportionate impact on poor and vulnerable households.

Key Challenges:

• Structural issues: High import dependence (LPG and fertilisers), and weak resilience of food supply chains.
• Affordability crisis: Rising cost of living affecting both food and fuel, increasing nutrition inequality.
• Social dimensions: Exclusion of migrant populations from welfare schemes. Intra-household dynamics affecting food distribution and access.
• Policy gaps: Food policies often ignore cooking fuel as a determinant of nutrition. Limited focus on dietary diversity.

Way Forward:

• Short-term measures:
  • Expand social safety nets, for example, subsidise nutritious foods (pulses, vegetables, eggs, meat, nuts).
  • Strengthen schemes like PMUY (Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana) to ensure continued LPG affordability, and including migrant workers temporarily.
  • Price stabilisation through buffer stocks and market intervention.
• Medium-term interventions: Improve public distribution system (PDS) to include nutrient-rich foods, strengthen last-mile delivery mechanisms, and enhance urban food security frameworks.
• Long-term structural reforms:
  • Promote domestic fertiliser production and reduce import dependency, and encourage nutrition-sensitive agriculture.
  • Adopt a food systems approach integrating production, distribution, consumption, and energy access.

Conclusion:

• The LPG crisis triggered by geopolitical instability highlights the deep interlinkages between energy security, food systems, and nutrition security.
• In a country already grappling with high levels of malnutrition, such shocks can exacerbate vulnerabilities.
• A shift towards a holistic food systems approach, backed by inclusive welfare policies and resilient supply chains, is essential to safeguard India’s nutritional well-being in times of global uncertainty.